Right now, Floridians are feeling the pinch at the pump more than most. Currently, as of March 17, 2026, the state average for regular unleaded gas is running at $3.86 a gallon, a significant jump from just a few weeks ago and the highest it has been in more than two years. That is 80 cents more than it was just a short time ago at the end of February and nearing $3.90 in some metro areas such as West Palm Beach.
The jump in prices is due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Gas prices went up in a hurry after U.S. and Israel strikes in Iran. Now oil prices are running above $95 a barrel. Gas prices normally lag behind oil prices, and Florida’s prices have shown some of the biggest jumps in the country lately, rising by 48 cents in a recent period. Spring break traffic is just adding to that.
But will we really be seeing $5 gas in our future? The short term odds are that yes, it is a real possibility. On Polymarket, traders are giving a 40 percent probability that the national average will be at $5 by the end of March. In 2022, when oil prices were running above $120 a barrel, Florida saw a brief period in which it topped out at $4.87 a gallon. If oil prices rise by another large amount to $150 a barrel or more due to conflict in the Middle East, it is entirely possible that Floridians will be seeing $4.50 to $5 a gallon in our near future.
But if we look further ahead, there is much less cause for alarm. According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook report, the national average price per gallon of gas is predicted to average only $3.34 next year, dropping further to $3.00 by the end of the year as oil prices fall back to less than $80, then $70 per barrel. GasBuddy’s own predictions, even back in 2026, had already called for a price average of $2.97 per gallon, so something would have to go terribly wrong indeed if we were to see $5 gas prices statewide.
Of course, there is one more wild card here. While hurricane season does not officially start until June, any problem with Gulf Coast oil production could quickly drive up prices statewide. But if the Iran situation does not get worse, I think most experts would agree that we are not looking at a $5 price, but rather a $4 price statewide. Diesel is already above $5, so you can see how quickly prices can go up. But gas prices still have to go up by another $1.14 per gallon, which is a big jump, especially if you are already feeling pinched by groceries and rent. Every 50 cents per gallon is $10 to $15 per tank, which is a big deal if you have a family, especially one that relies so much on cars here in Florida.
But here is the thing. Prices tend to go down when things settle down, so let’s all take a deep breath. While there is a possibility of $5 gas prices statewide this spring or summer, it is not anywhere near a done deal, especially if world events continue to simmer rather than boil. So, let’s take a breath, use GasBuddy to find lower prices, carpool if you can, and hope that prices go back down. We have had wild price swings before, and while this one may feel extreme, history shows that these swings are not permanent.