What will the price of SpaceX stock be in five years’ time? Could it reach $900 by 2031?
SpaceX has been publicly available for less than two months and Wall Street is already divided on two versions of the company: one being a business concerned with satellites and launches that requires huge amounts of capital, and the other a future giant in the fields of broadband, mobile services, artificial intelligence, chips, lunar transportation and eventually Mars.
That is the reason why a forecast of SpaceX’s share price for 2031 must be given as a range rather than as a single figure. In my view, SPCX might trade between $350 and $450 per share by 2031. Under strong execution conditions it could reach as high as $700 to $900. But if Starship development comes to a standstill, AI spending falls short, or the valuation multiples collapse, the stock could stay close to $75 to $150.
It is unclear whether SpaceX can grow quickly enough to warrant a valuation at which it entered the public market at $135 per share and about $1.75 trillion. This uncertainty is evident in the market: the shares rose to $225 following the IPO before dropping back below the $135 offer price. The Associated Press reported on the volatility of SpaceX’s shares after the IPO
Starlink Is Still the Financial Engine
SpaceX’s first publicly released earnings report provided investors with something tangible to assess. According to Reuters, second-quarter revenue increased by 92% to $7.8 billion from $4.1 billion the previous year. More than half of the revenue came from Starlink, and Starlink operating income rose by 79%. The number of subscribers doubled to 12 million.
The company has also stated that it expects to achieve an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of 2026 and aims to launch at least 1,000 next-generation V3 Starlink satellites within the next year. According to President Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX plans to develop ground infrastructure and move forward with a “true mobile service”, thus positioning itself as a direct competitor to T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon.
Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $300 for SpaceX, and Goldman Sachs has started coverage with a target of $205. Once again, these figures are not forecasts for the five-year period, but they do indicate the extent to which major banks are currently valuing future growth.
The Next Five Years Are About More Than Rockets
SpaceX is attempting to convert its advantage in launching vehicles into a platform.
Starship is a key element of that plan. Reuters has stated that SpaceX is preparing for another Starship flight test and hopes to achieve a launch frequency of at least one occasion each day. The vehicle has the potential to greatly reduce the cost of deploying Starlink satellites, lunar equipment and future orbital facilities.
NASA is also placing its trust in SpaceX. In its updated Artemis III plan, the agency proposes a mission to Earth orbit in 2027 which will involve testing rendezvous and docking with commercial landers, such as SpaceX’s Starship system, before the subsequent crewed lunar landing missions.
There’s also Mars; SpaceX states that cargo flights to the Martian surface are not expected before 2028.
Investors will have to see that Starship is reusable, frequent and economically useful.
AI Could Decide Whether SPCX Becomes a $5 Trillion Company
The thing that was surprising in SpaceX’s first earnings report wasn’t space: it was AI.
The revenue from AI increased by about 250% from the previous year, and SpaceX announced that it was making large investments in data centres and in Nvidia hardware. Capital spending for the quarter amounted to $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion was allocated to AI infrastructure. Bret Johnsen, the company’s CFO, stated that the new computing investments were yielding a payback period of under one year, and shortly after the end of the quarter SpaceX secured an additional $6.7 billion in cloud contracts.
Brian Mulberry from Zacks Investment Management described the early monetization as “a tremendous upside surprise”.
SpaceX is at the same time going deeper into hardware. Reuters has reported that SpaceX and Tesla intend to make an initial investment of $16.8 billion in a semiconductor complex in Texas known as Terafab, the equipment being intended for use in AI systems and space-based data centres.
The opportunity is huge as well as the risk; it is possible to generate growth through heavy spending at the same time as destroying shareholder returns if margins never recover.
My 2031 SpaceX Stock Forecast
A reasonable base case is $350 to $450 per share by 2031. Given the current number of shares of about 13.6 billion, a price of $400 would mean a market value of nearly $5.4 trillion before taking future dilution into account. This figure can only be justified if SpaceX develops a business that generates hundreds of billions of dollars in annual revenue from Starlink, mobile services, AI computing, and launch services.
The bull case ranges from $700 to $900; this would mean that Starship has to operate at a high frequency, Starlink mobile has to secure a meaningful share of the telecom market, AI computing has to remain profitable, and SpaceX has to demonstrate that its capital expenditures lead to sustainable cash flow.
The bear case ranges from $75 to $150 and SpaceX does not have to fail for this to occur; it would be enough for the execution to be slow, the AI economics to be weak, for there to be dilution or for the market to be unwilling to pay high multiples.
Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets described the most recent results as “positive”. That is encouraging, but five years is a long time over which engineering reality has been able to overcome enthusiasm.
In 2031 SpaceX might become one of the most valuable companies in the world, but a stock price of $400 would already require that the various businesses currently being developed in fact function.
What investors are doing is not purchasing rockets, but rather acquiring a stake in the future when SpaceX becomes infrastructure.
This is merely a scenario analysis, without any intention of giving investment advice.